The US economy is currently marked by weak manufacturing, but with a housing market showing signs of a sustainable recovery.  However, the Fed is focused on the job market, leaving the option open for more quantitative easing if it doesn’t begin to materially improve (which is highly unlikely in the near term).

Leading indicators in the US remain strong, measured on a 3m and 12m forward basis.  Coincident data here is defined as a weighted index of non-farm payrolls, personal income, industrial production and manufacturing output.

The positive upturn in these leading indices suggest that the US economy will recover later this year.