Variant Perception

Empirical | Repeatable | Actionable

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We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our suite of indicators cover tactical, cyclical and structural time horizons.

Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks.

Empirical Philosophy

VP Cookbook
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Our cookbooks outline the key principles that influence how we approach markets and building models.

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In this series of reports, we describe how we think about fundamental economic and market concepts.

Repeatable Models

Process Review
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We review our performance, ask what went well and what went wrong, and how we can improve our process and models.

Structural Indicators
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Modeling long term themes like demographics, capital cycles, debt and currency crises. Our long-term models work over horizons of 2-3 years and beyond.

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We create leading indicators for inflation, growth and liquidity. These allow us to navigate the business cycle over
6-12 months.

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Our tactical indicators and signals help clients with short term positioning. These signals are useful over time horizons of days and weeks.

Macro Snapshot
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A monthly overview of market drivers, critical indicators, and key investment views.

Actionable Ideas

Asset Allocation
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We bring together our core views and investment ideas. The portfolio is created by balancing time horizons and sizing positions appropriately.

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Qualitative research together with our models allow us to find the next big investment theme. We have covered Shale, Biotech, and the Commodity Super Cycle.

Portfolio Watch
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We write up investment ideas that emerge from our tactical and cyclical indicators. We also discuss current market drivers.

Empirical. Repeatable. Actionable.


Portfolio Watch

Actionable ideas powered by VP's leading indicators

Our focus is on timely insights and accountability for our trade and asset allocation ideas.


Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep dive

We've covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out.


Custom work, on request, for select clients

We direct our tools and research capabilities to your topics of interest. Confidential and unique to you.