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AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates decreased demand for design services in April

May 22nd, 2013
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Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Reverts into Negative Territory for First Time in Nine Months

2013-30: Equity Extraction and Mortgage Default

May 22nd, 2013
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Steven Laufer. Using a property-level data set of houses in Los Angeles County, I estimate that 30% of the recent surge in mortgage defaults is attributable to early home-buyers who would not have defaulted had they not borrowed against the rising value of their homes during the boom. I develop and estimate a structural model capable of explaining the patterns of both equity extraction and default observed among this group of homeowners.

Existing Home Sales Report: April 2013

May 22nd, 2013
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Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April showin

Obama in the Middle East: Fading Red Lines and Eroding Credibility

May 22nd, 2013
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A post last month argued that President Obama was fast approaching a defining moment for his foreign policy in view of the mounting evidence that the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria used sarin, a lethal nerve gas, in violation of Mr.

The Dark Ages of Bernanke's Tenure

May 22nd, 2013
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The chart below shows the annual real rate of US GDP growth going back to 1930.  In the last 84 years, the US economy has averaged an annual growth rate of 3.34%.  For the chart, we have color coded each year based on whether or not annual GDP growth was above (gray) or below (red) 3.0%.  Currently, the US economy is in the midst of its eighth straight year where annual growth has been (or will be) below 3%.  This eight years also happens to coincide with the entire tenure of Ben Bernanke as the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

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