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A few comments on New Home Sales

May 23rd, 2013
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Obviously the new home sales report this morning was solid with sales above expectations and significant upward revisions to prior months. I try not to react too much to the month to month ups and downs; the key points right now are that sales are increasing and will probably continue to increase for some time. Now that we have four months of data for 2013, one way to look at the growth rate is to use the "not seasonally adjusted" (NSA) year-to-date data.

Peak oil notes - May 23

May 23rd, 2013
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A mid-week update. Oil prices have fallen $2-3 a barrel this week on weaker demand, increased US production, rising product stockpiles, and a stronger dollar. At the close on Wednesday, NY oil settled at $94.28 and London at $102.60 with the WTI-Brent spread climbing to $8.32. The weekly stocks report showed stocks at Cushing, Okla. increasing to by 450,000 barrels to 50.2 million last week.

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing expanded in May

May 23rd, 2013
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From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Survey Improved Somewhat The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the May Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity improved somewhat, rising above zero for the first time in seven months, and producers’ expectations for future activity also increased.

IFDP1080: Do Central Banks? Forecasts Take Into Account Public Opinion and Views?

May 23rd, 2013
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Ricardo Nunes. The Federal Reserve through the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly releases macroeconomic forecasts to the general public and the US congress with the purpose of explaining the likely evolution of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Immediately before doing so, the FOMC receives a forecast produced by the Federal Reserve staff which remains private for five years. The literature has pointed out that, despite the informational advantage of the FOMC, its forecast differs from and is not always more accurate than the staff forecast.

Percentage of SPX Stocks Over 200 Day Moving Average

May 23rd, 2013
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Renaissance Macro Research, May 14, 2013   Jeff deGraaf, technician extraordinaire (formerly of Lehman now at Renaissance Macro Research) makes an interesting observation about the heavily overbought markets.

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