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: VoxEU
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Fiscal spending and growth: New evidence

May 17th, 2012
in
Céline Carrère, Jaime de Melo, 17 May 2012It is not just the OECD countries where fiscal policy is the subject of fierce debate. This column presents results from an “event analysis” carried out on a database of 140 countries over the period 1972-2005. It suggests that, for developing countries at least, a fiscal stimulus can be effective – provided the rest of the economy is stable and the fiscal deficit is low. Full Article: Fiscal spending and growth: New evidence

Hume on hold? Consequences of not abolishing Eurozone national central banks

May 17th, 2012
in
Michael Burda, 17 May 2012The EZ crisis reveals critical flaws in the Eurozone’s design. This column argues that failing to abolish national central banks left the door open for national interests to interfere with the natural workings of the financial system and Hume’s adjustment mechanism. This flaw – and the omission of a European Banking Authority with real teeth – will come back to haunt Europe in the months and years to come.Full Article: Hume on hold?

Germany should follow in the footsteps of China

May 17th, 2012
in
Kamil Yilmaz, 17 May 2012Germany’s fiscal response to the crisis was timid compared with those of China and the US. This column uses business-cycle connectedness indices to show that Germany should follow in the footsteps of China and increase its domestic spending so that it will generate net positive connectedness to others.

Hume on hold? Consequences of not abolishing EZ national central banks

May 17th, 2012
in
Michael Burda, 17 May 2012The ongoing EZ crisis reveals critical flaws in the Eurozone’s design. This column argues that failing to abolish national central banks left the door open for national interests to interfere with the natural workings of the financial system and Hume’s adjustment mechanism. This flaw, and the omission of a European Banking Authority with real teeth, will come back to haunt Europe in the months and years to come.Full Article: Hume on hold?

Greece’s predicament: Lessons from Argentina

May 16th, 2012
in
Peter Kretzmer, Mickey Levy, 16 May 2012Greece’s economic and financial crisis is quickly deteriorating and there is no strategy – or even a coalition government – to figure out what to do next. This column looks at the lessons from Argentina’s default in 2001 and argues that Greece’s road to necessary economic reforms, fiscal sustainability and recovery may be even more daunting.Full Article: Greece’s predicament: Lessons from Argentina

Greasing the wheel: Oil’s role in the global crisis

May 16th, 2012
in
Lucas Chancel, Thomas Spencer, 16 May 2012Between January 2002 and August 2008, the nominal oil price rose from $19.7 to $133.4 a barrel. This column gathers evidence on the role of this rise in prices in the global crisis. It suggests that oil prices had a direct impact on household expenditure on gasoline and increased mortgage delinquency rates. It adds that it also had many indirect impacts, notably though interest rate increases due to monetary policy.

The Eurozone crisis: Fiscal fragility, external imbalances, or both?

May 16th, 2012
in
Pietro Alessandrini, Michele Fratianni, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Andrea F Presbitero, 16 May 2012Unsustainable debt along Europe’s periphery is bringing the euro to breaking point. But this column argues that this is not simply the result of fiscal ill-discipline. After 2010, the Eurozone crisis went from a fiscal crisis to a balance-of-payments crisis – with different prescriptions for policy. Full Article: The Eurozone crisis: Fiscal fragility, external imbalances, or both?

The housing market and the case for higher inflation targets in the US and the Eurozone

May 15th, 2012
in
Joshua Aizenman, Menzie D. Chinn , 15 May 2012Might more inflation be good for the US and Europe? This column looks at the housing market in the US and argues that, with houses dropping in price, buyers are playing a waiting game. And as buyers keep delaying, the price drops further. Given the importance of property in many economies, the knock-on effects are severe.

Regional integration and natural resources: Who benefits?

May 15th, 2012
in
Céline Carrère, Julien Gourdon, Marcelo Olarreaga, 15 May 2012Regional integration schemes that include natural-resource-abundant countries have by and large been unsuccessful. Part of the reason is the uneven distribution of gains when resource-poor and resource-rich countries integrate.

School-to-work pathways in Europe and in the US

May 15th, 2012
in
Glenda Quintini, 15 May 2012Recent sizeable increases in youth unemployment are compromising the school-to-work transition of recent school graduates. This column uses optimal matching, a method borrowed from molecular biology, to study the transitions from school to work in Europe and the US. It argues the share of youth facing serious difficulties on the labour market is 18 percentage points smaller in the US than in Europe. In Europe, 30% of youth face difficulties settling into the labour market and another 15% are trapped in long-term unemployment or inactivity.

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