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Excess German savings, not thrift, caused the European crisis

May 21st, 2013
in
One of the reasons that it is been so hard for a lot of analysts, even trained economists, to understand the imbalances that were at the root of the current crisis is that we too easily confuse national savings with household savings. By coincidence there was recently a very interesting debate on the subject involving several economists, [...]

Hungary's Matolcsy Joins Japan's Abe In Practicing The Ancient Art Of Verbal Intervention

February 15th, 2013
in
It's amazing what you can achieve these days just by promising to do something. It's also fascinating to watch just what a storm you can stir up.

Recognizing the need for economic adjustment

January 14th, 2013
in
In China, I have argued many times, high growth is no longer compatible with a strengthening balance sheet. If China is growing at a rate that approaches or exceeds five or six percent, it is probably a safe bet that debt is rising faster than debt servicing capacity. The good news is that the current leadership seems very [...]

The IMF on overinvestment

December 28th, 2012
in
The IMF’s Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that China is overinvesting significantly. According to the abstract: Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness [...]

Three cheers for the new data?

December 4th, 2012
in
The big news in the past two weeks has been the slew of economic data suggesting that China has firmly turned the corner on its economic closedown. Growth is up, investment is up, and inflation is down. Here, for example, is the New York Times, a newspaper whose website is no longer available in China without a VPN: [...]

Is there an Asian RMB bloc?

November 17th, 2012
in
In the past two weeks we have been treated with a mostly positive but nonetheless mixed bag of economic data from China. There has been good news, bad news, good news with worrying underlying trends, and bad news with silver linings. Analysts have announced that things are getting worse and that things are getting better. [...]

When the Growth Model Changes, Abandon the Correlations

October 27th, 2012
in
Chiwoong Lee at Goldman Sachs has a new report out (“China vs. 1970s Japan”, September 25, 2012) in which he predicts that China’s long-term growth rate will drop to 7.5-8.5%. I disagree very strongly with his forecast, of course, and expect China’s growth rate over the next decade to average less than half that number, [...]

How to be a China bull

October 7th, 2012
in
I recently “debated” twice with senior Chinese officials on the future prospects for China.  In both cases they made the argument that Chinese growth rates were going to rise in the next few years and that the current deep pessimism is unwarranted. I argued, of course, that growth would slow even more. Neither of the [...]

Can China increase export competitiveness?

September 23rd, 2012
in
Three weeks ago the Wall Street Journal published my OpEd piece about concern that China may try to make the rebalancing process less painful by allowing the RMB to depreciate. In the piece I argue that this isn’t as obvious as you might think. From July 2005 to February this year the RMB rose by just over 30% [...]

By 2015 hard commodity prices will have collapsed

September 16th, 2012
in
For the past two years, as regular readers know, I have been bearish on hard commodities. Prices may have dropped substantially from their peaks during this time, but I don’t think the bear market is over. I think we still have a very long way to go. There are four reasons why I expect prices to [...]

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