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Not Much Room for More Treasuries

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Chairman's Press Briefing: No Decision on Communication, But Stay Tuned

As there was essentially no new information in the prepared remarks, we will jump right into the Q&A. Among other things, the Chairman indicated that there was robust discussion of communication options within the "existing framework" for communicating and thinking about the dual mandate, but no decisions were made at the November FOMC meeting. This is from a commentary that was published on November 2, 2011. Contact Macroeconomic Advisers

FOMC Forecasts: No Policy Implications

FOMC participants downgraded their growth forecasts appreciably, relative to June, reflecting much gloomier data since then. But the gloomier data were already factored into the August and September decision: Today's forecasts provide no new hints about future policy. This is from a commentary that was published on November 2, 2011. Contact Macroeconomic Advisers

How Good Are Your Communication Skills?

We don't expect the announcement of any major initiatives at the end of the November FOMC meeting. Next week will be mostly about exploring ways for the FOMC to communicate better with the public. This is from a commentary that was published on October 28, 2011.

On Communication

We continue to believe that the next easing step, if any, will take the form of communication—e.g., measures designed to signal a longer-than-expected period of “exceptionally low” rates—rather than QE3. This is from a commentary that was published on October 27, 2011. Contact Macroeconomic Advisers

Can Refinancing Reinvigorate the Recovery? Don't Expect Miracles from HARP Modifications

Today the FHFA announced changes to the HARP program intended to make it easier for borrowers with high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios to refinance their fixed-rate mortgages to take advantage of today's low interest rates.

Man Up: AJ(obs)A vs. J(obs)TGA

Last week the Republican leadership unveiled the Jobs through Growth Act (JTGA) as a counterpoint to the President’s proposed American Jobs Act (AJA).[1] JTGA includes a Balanced Budget Amendment (BBA), reform of the income tax code, repeal of “Obamacare,” Dodd-Frank, and other regulations, fast-track authority for the President to negotiate new trade agreements, and the easing of restrictions on the exploration for new domestic sources of energy.

Can Refinancing Reinvigorate the Recovery?

As part of his plan to stimulate job creation, President Obama “instructed his economic team to work with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae, their regulator the FHFA, major lenders and industry leaders to remove the barriers that exist in the current refinancing program (HARP) to help more borrowers benefit from today’s historically low interest rates.”[1] One estimate is that if 37 million mortgages owned or guaranteed by government agencies and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs[2]) were refinanced at today’s interest rates, borrowers would initially save as muc

MA's Monthly GDP Index Rose 0.4% in August

Monthly GDP rose 0.4% in August on the heels of a 0.9% increase in July. The two-month increase more than reversed a 1.0% decline over the prior two months (May and June). The increase in August reflected increases in domestic final sales and inventory investment that were partially offset by a decline in net exports. The level of monthly GDP in August was 3.0% above the second-quarter 2.7% annualized growth of GDP in the third quarter assumes a 0.2% increase (not annualized) in September.

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