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BoE Accepts 40th Consecutive Month of Above-Target Inflation

May 3rd, 2013
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ECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge . The value of this forward-looking gauge lies in its ability to predict cyclical turns in U.K. inflation.While inflation has declined markedly since 2011, it has plateaued well above the Bank of England’s 2% target, with March’s reading marking the 40th straight above-target month.

Latest Canadian GDP Figures Defy Carney

May 2nd, 2013
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ECRI has just updated its Canadian Long Leading Index . The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.The consensus was cheered by the latest output data, stoking expectations of first quarter GDP growth above 2%, a rate that would be the economy’s strongest showing since 2011.

AAII Bullish Sentiment Rises Back Above 30%

May 2nd, 2013
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Individual investors turned a little more bullish this week as bullish sentiment rose back above 30% for the first time in a month.  According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment for the latest week rose from 28.29% up to 30.99%.  Even after this rise, however, it is still hard to believe that with the S&P 500 at or near all-time highs, that less than one-third of individual investors are bullish.

Jobless Claims Drop to a Five Year Low

May 2nd, 2013
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While most of the economic data we have been seeing lately has been weaker than expected, one bright spot over the last few months has been initial jobless claims.  This week proved to be no exception as jobless claims came in considerably lower than expected (324K vs 342K).  It was also the lowest weekly reading in claims going all the way back to January 2008! Click here to continue reading.

New Business Cycle Peaks for Italy and Japan

May 1st, 2013
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Today ECRI is announcing new business cycle peak dates for Italy and Japan .Click here for the complete international business cycle chronology.Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H.

New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Mexico and Japan

May 1st, 2013
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Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Mexico and Japan .Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles.

Introducing Bespoke's New Research Site

May 1st, 2013
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Six years ago today, Bespoke Investment Group was launched by co-founders Paul Hickey and Justin Walters.  To coincide with our six-year anniversary, we present to you our new and improved research website: Bespoke Premium.  We urge you to take a look at the new website when you have a chance.

Russell 2000 Back Below 50-DMA

May 1st, 2013
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The Russell 2000 is having an especially bad day today with a decline of just under 2%.  This puts the index on pace for its worst day since April 15th's 3.78% decline.  Today's decline has put the Russell 2000 back below its 50-day moving average as well.  More importantly, though, while the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high yesterday, the Russell 2000 made its second lower high since March 15th.  Not a good sign for smallcaps and the broad economy.

Oil and Gasoline Inventories Go Their Separate Ways

May 1st, 2013
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What are we going to do with all of this oil?  In the latest inventory report from the Department of Energy (DoE), crude oil stockpiles rose much more than expected.  While traders were expecting an increase of 1.1 million barrels, actual inventories surged by 6.7 million barrels.  This was the largest weekly increase since last September, and now puts crude oil inventories not only at record highs for this time of year, but all-time highs for any time of year!

Gold Rally Stopped Dead In its Tracks

May 1st, 2013
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The chart below shows the intraday trading of the front month future in gold over the last three weeks.  On Friday April 12th, the price of gold declined 4% and closed in official bear market territory.  The following Monday, the bottom fell out of gold's price as it declined another 9.4%, taking the commodity to its most oversold levels ever.  

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