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Jobs growth is still moderate

May 3rd, 2013
in
A month ago, I downplayed the weakness in the March jobs report (Jobs report more noise than signal), suggesting that future revisions could easily wipe out the apparent weakness, which seemed suspect. That's exactly what happened with the April report. Thanks to sizable revisions to the past few months and a stronger-than-expected April gain, jobs growth is once again back to where it has been for the better part of the last few years.

Employment Report Comments and more Graphs

May 3rd, 2013
in
Total nonfarm employment is up 2.077 million over the last year, and up 783 thousand so far in 2013 (a 2.35 million annual pace). Private employment is up 2.166 million over the last year, and up 813 thousand so far in 2013 (a 2.44 million annual pace). This would be the strongest annual rate for private sector job growth since 1999 (update) if this pace continues for the entire year! Imagine if there was less fiscal restraint ... Hopefully fiscal restraint will ease later this year, and we will see an increase in economic growth.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slower expansion in April

May 3rd, 2013
in
Note: I'll have much more on the employment report soon. The April ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 53.1%, down from 54.4% in March. The employment index decreased in April to 52.0%, down from 53.3% in March. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: April 2013 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

April Employment Report: 165,000 Jobs, 7.5% Unemployment Rate

May 3rd, 2013
in
From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ... ...

Friday: Employment Report

May 3rd, 2013
in
A couple more previews ... From the Sudeep Reddy at the WSJ: What to Expect From the Jobs Report

Employment Situation Preview

May 2nd, 2013
in
On Friday, at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for an increase of 153,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.6%. Here is a summary of recent data:

Claims: it just doesn't get much better

May 2nd, 2013
in
The number of people getting laid off these days is very close to as low as it is ever going to be. U.S. businesses have just about completed their adjustment to the new realities set in motion by the Great Recession. The adjustment chapter of this business cycle is closing, and now the focus turns to the growth and expansion chapter. So far it's not very exciting at all; quite dull in fact. But the stage is set for some impressive growth if Congress can get the right policies in place.

Trade Deficit declined in March to $38.8 Billion

May 2nd, 2013
in
The Department of Commerce reported: [T]otal March exports of $184.3 billion and imports of $223.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $38.8 billion, down from $43.6 billion in February, revised. March exports were $1.7 billion less than February exports of $186.0 billion. March imports were $6.5 billion less than February imports of $229.6 billion. The trade deficit was lower than the consensus forecast of $42.4 billion.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 324,000

May 2nd, 2013
in
The DOL reports: In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 324,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 342,250, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average of 358,250. The previous week was revised up from 339,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

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