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Labor Force Participation Rate Research

May 13th, 2013
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The participation rate has declined sharply since the recession started due both to cyclical reasons and also because of demographics (baby boomers retiring) and long term trends (more 16 to 24 year olds staying in school is an example). A key question is: How much of the recent decline is due to cyclical factors and how much of the decline was expected due to long term factors? Note: The table at the bottom from Dr. Altig shows the relationship between the participation rate and the unemployment rate.

SNAP Food Stamp Participation: February 2013

May 13th, 2013
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As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn, participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.

Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO inventory declines in Q1 2013

May 13th, 2013
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The combined Real Estate Owned (REO) by Fannie, Freddie and the FHA declined to 189,5291 at the end of Q1 2013, down from 192,720 in Q4 2012, and down 9% from 209,077 in Q1 2012. The peak for the combined REO of the F's was 295,307 in Q4 2010. This following graph shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA. This is only a portion of the total REO. There is also REO for private-label MBS, FDIC-insured institutions, VA and more. REO has been declining for those categories too.

When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?

May 13th, 2013
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The WSJ has an overview of several economic forecasts: Economic Road Clearing, but the Going Is Slow

Retail Sales increase 0.1% in April

May 13th, 2013
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On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from March to April (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.7% from April 2012. From the Census Bureau report:

Monday: Retail Sales

May 13th, 2013
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Monday economic releases: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for April will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to decline 0.3% in April, and to decline 0.1% ex-autos. Note: Some of the decline will be due to lower gasoline prices. • At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories. Weekend:

EIA: Gasoline Prices expected to average $3.53 per gallon this summer

May 12th, 2013
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Happy Mother's Day! (off topic: Sasha's Snoxx Socks venture is almost fully funded - you can preorder Snoxx here, or see her Snoxx website.) From the EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook

Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type in Q1

May 12th, 2013
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The following graphs show the percent of loans delinquent by loan type based on the MBA National Delinquency Survey: Prime, Subprime, FHA and VA. First a table comparing the number of loans in Q2 2007 and Q1 2013 so readers can understand the shift in loan types over the last several years. Both the number of prime and subprime loans have declined over the last 5+ years; the number of subprime loans is down by about 33%. Meanwhile the number of FHA loans has more than doubled and VA loans have increased sharply.

Schedule for Week of May 12th

May 11th, 2013
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A key report this week will be April retail sales to be released on Monday.  Also there are two key housing reports to be released: the May homebuilder confidence survey on Wednesday, and April housing starts on Thursday. For manufacturing, the April Industrial Production survey will be released on Wednesday.  Also for manufacturing, the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed May surveys will be released this week. For prices, PPI and CPI for April will be released.

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