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: Calculated Risk
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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decreased to 14.9 million annual rate in April

May 1st, 2013
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Based on an estimate from AutoData Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 14.92 million SAAR in April. That is up 6% from April 2012, and down 2% from the sales rate last month. This was below the consensus forecast of 15.3 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for April (red, light vehicle sales of 14.92 million SAAR from AutoData).

FOMC Statement: "fiscal policy is restraining economic growth", "prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases"

May 1st, 2013
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The key changes: 1) "fiscal policy is restraining economic growth." 2) "The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes." The FOMC is clearly signaling that fiscal policy is hurting the economy ... FOMC Statement:

ISM Manufacturing index declines in April to 50.7

May 1st, 2013
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The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in April. The PMI was at 50.7% in April, down from 51.3% in March. The employment index was at 50.2%, down from 54.2%, and the new orders index was at 52.3%, up from 51.4% in March. From the Institute for Supply Management: April 2013 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

ADP: Private Employment increased 119,000 in April

May 1st, 2013
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From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs from March to April, according to the April ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP® ... in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The March report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised downward to 131,000 jobs. ...

MBA: Refinance Mortgage Applications Increase, Purchase Applications Decrease

May 1st, 2013
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From the MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and is at its highest level since the week ending January 18, 2013. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier. ...

Restaurant Index increased in March

April 30th, 2013
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From the National Restaurant Association: Positive same-store sales push RPI above 100 in March

HVS: Q1 2013 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

April 30th, 2013
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The Census Bureau released the Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2013 this morning. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000

April 30th, 2013
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Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices, and it is also useful to look at house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation) and as a price-to-rent ratio. As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $276,000 today adjusted for inflation.  This is why economist also look at real house prices (inflation adjusted). Nominal House Prices

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