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Wednesday: Fed Day

June 19th, 2013
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More support for Dr. Janet Yellen to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke next January. I supported Yellen in 2009, and I think she would be an excellent choice. Wednesday economic releases: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May

June 18th, 2013
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Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in May.  Look at the two columns in the table for Total "Distressed" Share. In almost every area that has reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down significantly in many areas. 

Housing Starts: A few comments

June 18th, 2013
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A few comments: • Overall the housing starts report was a little disappointing with total starts at a 914 thousand rate on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) in May. This was below the consensus forecast of 950 thousand SAAR.

Key Measures show low and falling inflation in May

June 18th, 2013
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The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

Fed: Household Debt Service Ratio near lowest level in 30+ years

June 18th, 2013
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The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2013 Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios yesterday. I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive financial obligations. These ratios show the percent of disposable personal income (DPI) dedicated to debt service (DSR) and financial obligations (FOR) for households.

Housing Starts increase in May to 914,000 SAAR

June 18th, 2013
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From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 914,000. This is 6.8 percent above the revised April estimate of 856,000 and is 28.6 percent above the May 2012 rate of 711,000.

Tuesday: Housing Starts, CPI

June 18th, 2013
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Earlier today, Robin Harding at the Financial Times released a market moving story of the Fed: Fed likely to signal tapering move is close Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy.

FNC: House prices increased 4.6% year-over-year in April

June 17th, 2013
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In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes. From FNC: FNC Index: Rise in Home Prices Picks up in April The latest FNC Residential Price Index™ (RPI) shows that U.S. home prices continue to rise in April, up 0.7% from the previous month. April’s gain marks the largest price acceleration since June 2012, caused in part by rising seasonal demand entering spring and summer.

Existing Home Inventory is up 14.9% year-to-date on June 17th

June 17th, 2013
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Weekly Update: One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I'm tracking inventory weekly in 2013.  There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

Redfin: "Here Comes the Inventory"

June 17th, 2013
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The bottom for inventory is a key topic for 2013 ... From Tim Ellis at Redfin: Here Comes the Inventory Increasing home prices are giving more sellers sufficient equity to sell, and sellers who already had equity are being lured into the market after seeing their neighbor’s homes sell in record time and in fierce bidding wars.

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