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: The Technical Take
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Bond Model: Turns Neutral

December 30th, 2012
in
The bond model initially turned bullish on November 16, 2012.  It was my expectation that equities would remain weak, and that positivity in the bond model is more of a reflection of economic weakness and market uncertainty.  At historic low yields, bonds don’t seem attractive beyond their safe haven status.  This would seem to sum [...] The post Bond Model: Turns Neutral appeared first on thetechnicaltake.

Bond Model: Turns Neutral

December 30th, 2012
in
The bond model initially turned bullish on November 16, 2012.  It was my expectation that equities would remain weak, and that positivity in the bond model is more of a reflection of economic weakness and market uncertainty.  At historic low yields, bonds don’t seem attractive beyond their safe haven status.  This would seem to sum [...] The post Bond Model: Turns Neutral appeared first on thetechnicaltake.

The Chart Book: 12.24.12

December 24th, 2012
in
A graphic representation of the markets to keep you on the right side of the trend.   The post The Chart Book: 12.24.12 appeared first on thetechnicaltake.

The Chart Book: 12.24.12

December 24th, 2012
in
A graphic representation of the markets to keep you on the right side of the trend.   The post The Chart Book: 12.24.12 appeared first on thetechnicaltake.

Investor Sentiment: This is For Certain

December 23rd, 2012
in
In a span of 4 weeks, investors (as represented by the “dumb money” indicator) have gone from a state of despair to one of euphoria.  In over 20 years of data, this is the shortest time it has ever taken the indicator to go from extremely bearish to extremely bullish.  I am not sure what [...] The post Investor Sentiment: This is For Certain appeared first on thetechnicaltake.

Investor Sentiment: This is For Certain

December 23rd, 2012
in
In a span of 4 weeks, investors (as represented by the “dumb money” indicator) have gone from a state of despair to one of euphoria.  In over 20 years of data, this is the shortest time it has ever taken the indicator to go from extremely bearish to extremely bullish.  I am not sure what [...] The post Investor Sentiment: This is For Certain appeared first on thetechnicaltake.

Real Time Recession Indicator: 12.18.12

December 18th, 2012
in
A real time recession indicator constructed from a composite of leading economic indicators, high frequency economic data, and SP500 pricing models continues to suggest that the US economy is NOT in recession. This composite indicator utilizes data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (WLI, LEI), the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index), and the [...]

Real Time Recession Indicator: 12.18.12

December 18th, 2012
in
A real time recession indicator constructed from a composite of leading economic indicators, high frequency economic data, and SP500 pricing models continues to suggest that the US economy is NOT in recession. This composite indicator utilizes data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (WLI, LEI), the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index), and the [...]

Inflation Pressures: Risk Off

December 17th, 2012
in
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index suggests that inflationary pressures should be a non-factor for the equity markets. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator and its significance in this [...] The post Inflation Pressures: Risk Off appeared first on thetechnicaltake.

Inflation Pressures: Risk Off

December 17th, 2012
in
A composite indicator constructed from the trends in yields on the 10 year Treasury bond, gold and the CRB Index suggests that inflationary pressures should be a non-factor for the equity markets. The indicator is shown in figure 1, a weekly chart of the SP500. I last discussed this indicator and its significance in this [...] The post Inflation Pressures: Risk Off appeared first on thetechnicaltake.

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