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Crude Inventories Rise; Gasoline Stockpiles Plummet

April 24th, 2013
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Crude oil and gasoline inventories both came in below forecasts this week.  In terms of crude oil, traders were expecting inventory levels to rise by 1.8 million barrels, while the actual build came in at just over half that (947K barrels).  In spite of the lower than expected increase in inventories, though, there have only been four other weeks since 1984 where inventories were higher than they are now.

Netflix's (NFLX) Remarkable Run

April 24th, 2013
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Apple (AAPL) is currently the biggest "dog" in the market, but up until recently, there was another stock that was trading just as badly -- Netflix (NFLX).  After gaining more than 1,500% from its 2008 low to its high in July 2011, Netflix began plummeting on pretty much a daily basis, and it was hard to find an analyst or investor that didn't think the company was destined to go under when it was trading in the $50s last year.  

Apple Announces Monster Buyback and Boosts Yield to 3%

April 23rd, 2013
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In tonight's earnings release, Apple (AAPL) announced a $50 billion increase in its buyback program and raised its dividend by 15%.  The buyback alone is massive and is actually a large enough total that there are only 69 companies in the United States with market caps larger than the buyback.  With regards to the dividend, shares of AAPL now yield 3.0% based on Tuesday's closing price.  At this level, AAPL now has a higher dividend yield than both 10 and 30-year US Treasuries, which yield 1.71% and 2.90%, respectively.

S&P 500 and Sector Trading Range Charts

April 23rd, 2013
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The S&P 500 has seen a bread and butter bounce off of its 50-day moving average this week.  Below is our trading range chart for the S&P 500 and its ten sectors.  For each chart, the blue shading represents the index's "normal" trading range, which is between one standard deviation above and below its 50-day (white line).  The red zone represents between one and two standard deviations above its 50-day, while the green zone represents between one and two standard deviations below its 50-day.

Dow Drops 150 Points and Bounces Back 150 Points in 4 Minutes

April 23rd, 2013
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A moment ago the AP tweeted out that there were two explosions at the White House and President Obama was injured.  Below is a snapshot of the Dow's action in the aftermath of that tweet.  As shown, the Dow fell 150 points immediately and dropped into negative territory but then bounced right back within a couple minutes after the AP thankfully responded that their Twitter account had been hacked.

What's Bouncing and What's Not?

April 23rd, 2013
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The average S&P 500 stock fell 3.74% from April 11th through April 18th, but they've bounced back an average of 2.38% since then.  So which areas of the market are bouncing the most and which are bouncing the least?   Below is a chart highlighting the average performance of stocks in each sector during the pullback (4/11 to 4/18) and on the subsequent bounce (since 4/18).  As shown, Financial and Consumer Discretionary stocks have done the best on the bounce, with average returns of 3.12% and 3.34%, respectively.  

2013 Country Stock Market Performance

April 22nd, 2013
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Below is a look at the year-to-date performance for the major stock market indices of 77 countries around the world.  Through today, the average country on the list is up 4.09% in 2013, and 49 of the 77 countries (63.6%) are in the green for the year.  

Gas Prices At a Key Level

April 22nd, 2013
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From late December through late February, the average price of gasoline in the US saw a sizable rally of 18%.  Not coincidentally, beginning in early March we began to see a notable deterioration in the momentum of economic indicators relative to expectations.  Since gas prices are such a large expense of the typical American's budget, higher prices at the pump inevitably crowd out spending elsewhere, which hurts economic activity.

Bearish Sentiment Ticks Higher

April 22nd, 2013
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Bearish sentiment in our weekly market poll increased 3 percentage points this week from 52% up to 55%.  As shown below, 55% of market poll participants said the S&P 500 would be lower one month from now, while 45% said the index would be higher.  Our market poll has now had more bears than bulls for 3 weeks in a row and 10 of the 16 total weeks of 2013.  

One Key Trait Driving Performance

April 19th, 2013
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Clients and regular readers of this site know that we have had a longstanding preference for US stocks with domestic exposure over stocks that generate the bulk of their revenues outside of the United States.  A look at the chart below shows just how well that strategy has been working over the last year.  In the chart, we compare the one-year performance of all ten S&P 500 sectors (y-axis) to the percentage of domestic revenues for the average stock in the sector (x-axis).

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