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: 2011 » 12/2011 » 12/16/2011
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Showcasing a More Confident Africa

Christine Lagarde

Bank and Broker Default Risk Remains Elevated

During the financial crisis, we created our Bank and Broker CDS (credit default swap) index to track the default risk of the major financial firms around the world, and we continue to track the index to this day.  Below is a chart of our CDS index (blue line) compared to a chart of the S&P 500 Financial sector (green line) going back to June 2008. 

VIX and St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index Moving in Concert

Last year I talked about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (which I am calling the STLFSI in order to lower my carpal tunnel risk) as a measure of financial market risk that I consider complementary to the VIX and in some cases perhaps even a superior alternative.

WLI Little Changed

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 122.3 in the week ended Dec 9 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.5.

S&P 500 Week Before Christmas Performance

Next week is the week before the Christmas holiday, and below we highlight how the S&P 500 has historically performed during this week.  As shown, both recently and longer term, the S&P 500 has averaged nice gains during the week before Christmas.  Over the last ten years, the index has averaged a gain of 0.43%.  Over the last 20 years -- 0.81%, 50 years -- 0.51%, and 100 years -- 0.30%.  Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.15% during all one-week periods, so the S&P 500 has historically doubled the average weekly return in the week before Christmas.

Breaking Down CPI

SF Gate details: Overall consumer prices increased 3.4 percent in the 12 months ended November, the smallest year-over-year increase since April. The core CPI climbed 2.2 percent from November 2010, the most since October 2008. The Fed's preferred price gauge, the Commerce Department's measure that excludes food and fuel and is tied to consumer spending, rose 0.1 percent in October after no change the prior month.

M&A and China Highlight 2011 Shareholder Suits

The pace of filings of class actions under federal securities and commodity laws is relatively steady in 2011 as compared to the past three years, according to NERA Economic Consulting. Behind this apparently steady number, however, was a substantial shift in the composition of cases filed. Two types of suits have primarily accounted for this compositional shift: M&A objection suits and suits involving Chinese companies listed in the US.

WLI Little Changed

A measure of future U.S. economic growth was little changed in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate improved modestly, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 122.3 in the week ended Dec 9 from 122.4 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.5.

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: all » 2011 » 12/2011 » 12/16/2011