According to the BLS, nonfarm employment rose only 115,000, as government payrolls shed 15,000. The household series adjusted to conform to the NFP concept indicates an additional 1.6 million employed relative to the official series. Private sector employment now exceeds levels of 2009M01, while aggregate hours worked exceeds by 1.9% (in log terms). With revisions to the February and March data, average employment growth is 207 thousand in the first four months, as compared to 210 thousand, from the first three months indicated in the March release.

Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and log household employment series (red), and centered three month moving average (dark red), seasonally adjusted, rescaled to 2007M12=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.

Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and log household employment series adjusted to conform to nonfarm payroll employment (red), and three month centered moving average (dark red), seasonally adjusted. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, NBER and author’s calculations.

Figures 1 and 2 confirm that employment growth appears to be decelerating. However, it is interesting that the household series adjusted to conform to the NFP series continues to register 1.6 million additional employed, as compared to the official NFP series. Note that the former series is a research series, developed in response to conservative economists criticisms of the official series. The household survey is smaller than the establishment, so the sampling error is about four times as large as that of the establishment survey. Further, the household series has to be adjusted for population controls (although the establishment series has to be benchmarked using data on UI tax records).

Governor Romney has stated that employment growth should average about 500,000 after such a recession [1] This job growth has occurred exactly 16 times since 1939 (the sample available); the last time it occurred was May 2010. It never occurred during the administrations of the G.W. Bush. September 1997 (during the Clinton administrations) was the previous episode. (see also [2]).

Figure 3 highlights the fact that total hours worked are rising faster than private sector employment (which is in turn rising faster than nonfarm payroll employment).

Figure 3: Log private employment (blue), and log aggregate weekly hours index in private sector, series AWHI (red), seasonally adjusted, rescaled to 2007M12=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.

Private sector employment now exceeds levels of 2009M01, while aggregate hours worked exceeds by 1.9% (in log terms).

Finally, note that the monthly (not benchmark) revisions have been upward. With revisions to the February and March data, average employment growth is 207 thousand in the first four months, as compared to 210 thousand, from the first three months indicated in the March release.

Figure 4: Private nonfarm payroll employment from March release (teal) and from April release (pink), seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS via FREDbv.

None of the foregoing should detract from the main point: we need faster employment growth. And that goal is within our power. Certainly, if government employment rolls had not decreased by 15,000, NFP would have risen by more in a mechanical sense. But in a deeper economic sense, we hould have had yet more had states not been slashing the rolls of K-12 teachers and other educational staff. Other measures, here and (citing the CBO) here.

More coverage: [WSJ RTE/Sparshott], [WSJ RTE/Izzo], [WSJ RTE/Shah], [Calculated Risk], [Delong], [Thoma], [NYT/Leonhardt], [NYT/Norris], and [FreeExchange/Ip].